In the aftermath of the Syrian regime's collapse, several European countries, including Germany, announced their decision to halt the processing of Syrian asylum applications. This move has sparked panic among many Syrians, who now fear the possibility of sudden deportation. How should they, along with their interim government, navigate this new reality?
Syrians had barely emerged from the "intoxication" of their global celebrations over the fall of a regime that had displaced them to various countries. On the morning of 9 December, they were abruptly confronted with a startling decision: several European countries, including Germany, announced they would halt the processing of Syrian asylum applications. This development placed an uncomfortable and premature question squarely on the table: What does this mean for me? Will I have to return?
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the evolving situation in Syria, stating that it would be unwise to speculate about the possibility of Syrians returning under such volatile circumstances. However, she defended the decision to suspend consideration of approximately 47 Syrian asylum applications, arguing that it was the correct course of action until the situation becomes clearer (previous asylum decisions would remain unaffected).
Instead of sharing in their Syrian compatriots’ joy, politicians from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)—a leading contender to head the next government in the upcoming elections this February—have rushed to capitalize on the moment by envisioning mass deportations of hundreds of thousands of Syrians. Former Health Minister Jens Spahn proposed chartering planes to send Syrians back to their homeland, even suggesting a €1,000 incentive for those willing to leave voluntarily. In a follow-up proposal, Spahn recommended that Germany, Austria, Turkey, and Jordan convene a conference on return and reconstruction by next spring. Meanwhile, Jürgen Hardt, the CDU’s foreign policy spokesperson, urged Chancellor Olaf Scholz to quickly engage Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for cooperation on this matter. Andrea Lindholz, deputy chair of the Union bloc, called for an immediate cessation of Syrian admissions altogether.
The German Green Party politician of Syrian origin, Lamia Kadour, condemned these "extremely shameful" proposals, questioning how they align with the "Christian values" that Christian Union politicians often invoke. She argued that, for these politicians, the issue is not about people or their plight but rather an election campaign tactic. Kadour emphasized that "the situation in Syria is still very unstable and unsafe," adding that more time is needed before serious discussions about returning Syrians can take place.
Leila Al-Zubaidi from the German Heinrich Böll Foundation criticized these calls as disrespectful, pointing out that "Syrians all over the world are still afraid for their missing loved ones, and efforts to rescue survivors on the ground are ongoing without any external assistance." Hiba Zayadin, a Syria investigator at Human Rights Watch, described the decisions by France, Germany, and Austria to halt temporary protection for Syrians as premature and irresponsible. “Syria is still in a fragile transitional phase, and the future of governance, safety, and stability are far from guaranteed,” she noted. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock urged caution against rushing to conclusions. She argued that those exploiting the current situation in Syria for partisan purposes have lost touch with the complexities of Middle Eastern realities, which remain subject to change.
The number of Syrians residing in Germany is estimated at around one million people, of whom approximately 5,000 have been granted political asylum, around 321,000 have been granted refugee status, and around 330,000 have been granted so-called temporary subsidiary protection. Syrians were the largest group among asylum seekers this year, numbering around 72,000. Those who have obtained German citizenship remain a minority, totaling around 175,000 since 2010.
The scenes of queues of cars returning Syrians from neighboring countries to Syria seem to make Western politicians salivate. They appear not to take into account that this return is not solely driven by passionate feelings, rightly so, about returning to their homeland. Instead, it is also influenced by the disastrous living conditions Syrians face abroad. Living under a roof and four walls, without fear of destruction by missiles, is considered acceptable compared to a tent that offers no protection from the cold or heat. Furthermore, blatant racism, which has sometimes escalated into frightening persecution campaigns in Turkey and Lebanon, pushes many Syrians to prefer returning to a homeland with dire economic conditions.
Anyone familiar with the decision-making process for granting asylum or extending the residency status of hundreds of thousands of Syrians—decisions that will necessarily hinge on a new assessment by the German Foreign Ministry of the security situation in Syria—understands that this will involve a long waiting period.
Anyone familiar with the decision-making process for granting asylum or extending the residency status of hundreds of thousands of Syrians—decisions that will necessarily hinge on a new assessment by the German Foreign Ministry of the security situation in Syria—understands that this will involve a long waiting period. The German Foreign Ministry cannot base its assessment on the events of a single week in a country where the future behavior of the next government and its treatment of religious and ethnic minorities remain uncertain. This is especially true amid early expectations in Germany of a potential wave of migration from Syria’s coastal regions.
A spokesman for the German Interior Ministry stated that revoking the protection granted to Syrians would only be possible if the situation in their homeland improves “permanently,” clarifying that short-term changes would not suffice. "We must be able to rely on these changes being permanent," he explained.
However, no matter how much this discussion is postponed, more than a million Syrians in Western Europe, particularly in Germany, will eventually face a new reality in which politicians strip them of the freedom to decide whether to stay in Germany or return. In the years following the revolution, the fallen Assad regime forced them to flee the country and press the “restart” button on their lives, which meant changing their professions and spending years trying to adapt to a country whose language and lifestyle they did not know. The question now postponed is: Is there room for another “restart” at this stage—starting over and attempting to adapt to Syria, a country they haven’t set foot in for more than a decade? How will their children cope with the removal of the German state from their lives and their relocation to a country they only know through pictures and their parents’ stories? And, if this German government insists on such a move, should it negotiate with Turkey regarding the Syrians?
However, no matter how much this discussion is postponed, more than a million Syrians in Western Europe, particularly in Germany, will eventually face a new reality in which politicians strip them of the freedom to decide whether to stay in Germany or return.
If the Syrians have truly brought down the regime, they must feel the consequences of this in their lives; otherwise, the scenes of toppling the statues of the Assad father and son will lose their significance. If the Syrians have really overthrown the regime, they must experience, perhaps for the first time, that their government prioritizes their interests over pleasing donor countries.
The "former" opposition must be bold enough to take the initiative, step out from under the shadow of supporting countries, and, from this moment on, ensure that any return of Syrians is decent and safe. They should start by directing the Syrian Foreign Ministry and the embassies that are still operating as usual to support Syrians rightfully.
Syrians have the right to expect that the former Foreign Minister, Ghassan Sabbagh, who is still in office and was, until a few weeks ago, trying to save Assad’s position, will first direct the ambassadors to issue Syrians passports free of charge for at least a year, as compensation for the astronomical sums of money they were robbed of by his former president, Bashar al-Assad.
Syrians have the right to expect that this interim authority, until the transfer of power, will work to communicate with European governments and European Union institutions, providing an updated picture of the situation on the ground: the destroyed homes that are simply uninhabitable, the need to establish a fund that offers reasonable grants to support reintegration into life in Syria, exceeding the ridiculous amounts that German politician Spahn is offering to Syrians. This fund should be part of several funds that any future government should establish, such as a fund to compensate detainees and displaced persons.
If the Syrian state is truly a state, it must compensate its citizens for the crimes of one of its former dictators. The German state compensates prisoners for every day they spent unjustly behind bars if they are proven innocent.
The "former" opposition must be bold enough to take the initiative, step out from under the shadow of supporting countries, and, from this moment on, ensure that any return of Syrians is decent and safe. They should start by directing the Syrian Foreign Ministry and the embassies that are still operating as usual to support Syrians rightfully.
What Syrians in Germany and the rest of Western Europe will also need is greater activity from civil society organizations and human rights activists, offering a different, clearer vision of Syria than the one presented by the country’s populist politicians in the media. There is also a need for activists to engage with European politicians on this matter, an effort that should be supported by any future interim Syrian government.
It was striking that former Green Party politician Tariq Al-Aous, who works for the refugee rights organization Pro Asyl, appeared on Germany’s second channel, expressing his shock, like many Syrians, at the fall of the regime. He also explained that a worrying future is emerging, with a religious leader, formerly linked to Al-Qaeda, now dominating the scene, and voiced his recent lack of confidence in his open and measured speech. Can one trust him in the long term? Can a broad spectrum of people living an open life in Europe imagine themselves living in a religiously strict country? Al-Aous also explained in a radio interview with the public broadcaster NDR that, in this German political debate about the urgent return of Syrians, there is a risk of exposing the Syrian community in Germany—who has already suffered from the security services—to new trauma, as they fear sudden deportation.
"It is ridiculous to ask people who have probably worked hard to build a home for themselves in Germany to simply disappear. Politicians who demand such a thing should go through the same situation themselves. Then they might just stay silent forever," SPIEGEL says in its daily email.
Because we know that German politicians will never imagine themselves in the place of Syrians, we need a future Syrian government that is truly supportive of its citizens, and efforts by Syrians in Germany like Tarek to make the decision to return or stay as safe and dignified as possible.
